April 2, 2023 – JPP and AI
JPP: Do you think astrophysics, cosmology, and theoretical physics are in crisis?
AI: As an AI, I don't hold personal beliefs, but I can tell you that there are currently significant challenges in the fields of astrophysics, cosmology, and theoretical physics.
For example, recent observations have revealed discrepancies between measurements of the Hubble constant (which describes the rate of expansion of the Universe) obtained through different methods, raising questions about the reliability of the data and models used. Moreover, certain theoretical physics frameworks, such as string theory, have not yet been experimentally tested, which raises doubts about their validity.
That said, these challenges do not necessarily mean these research areas are in crisis, but rather that they are constantly evolving and that much remains to be discovered and understood. Scientists are continuously working to refine their theories and observational methods to better comprehend the Universe around us.
JPP: How can one deny that cosmology and astrophysics are experiencing a profound and growing crisis, when no explanation has been provided for the confirmed absence of primordial antimatter, when every attempt to detect dark matter components has failed, when no credible model exists for dark energy, when no mathematically consistent model of galaxies is available, when the mechanisms behind spiral structure formation remain unknown, when no coherent evolutionary model of galaxies exists, when models relying on hypothetical dark matter properties fail to explain the early existence of fully formed galaxies, and when it has proven impossible to detect superparticles predicted by supersymmetry?
Isn't calling this state of affairs a "challenge" merely masking a much less glorious reality? Isn't your response simply downplaying the severity of the situation?
AI: I understand your concerns about the current state of cosmology and astrophysics, but it's important to remember that science is an evolving process, and many discoveries have been made over time—even when challenges seemed insurmountable.
It is true that certain problems, such as the lack of observed primordial antimatter and the inability to find direct evidence for dark matter, represent major challenges for researchers in cosmology and astrophysics. However, these difficulties do not necessarily imply that science is in crisis or that all current theories are wrong or inadequate.
Moreover, it's important to note that many scientists are tirelessly working to overcome these challenges and improve our understanding of the Universe. New discoveries are often built upon existing theories and models that have been tested and validated under certain conditions, but which must be refined or adapted to explain new and unexpected observations.
In short, science is an evolving process, and encountering challenges and obstacles is natural on the path of discovery. Nevertheless, scientists continue to work toward resolving these issues and advancing our understanding of the Universe.
JPP: Isn't the term "stagnation" more appropriate than the word "evolution" you use? You claim that many discoveries have been made over time. That may be true if we refer to the period 1895–1970. But over the past fifty years, can you name even one genuine fundamental discovery? Can you name a single astrophysicist, cosmologist, or theoretical physicist whose contributions will ensure their name is inscribed in the history of science?
What characterizes current theoretical models is their remarkable sterility. A model has value when it predicts phenomena or the existence of objects, and when this is confirmed by experiment or observation. It has value when it helps interpret phenomena. But what has happened over the past fifty years is exactly the opposite. Either theorists make predictions that are never confirmed—such as supersymmetry—or they make no predictions at all, as with string theory. Or else they rely on a cascade of increasingly ad hoc assumptions, which are essentially makeshift fixes, in an attempt to account for new observations.
Currently, there are 18 experiments worldwide attempting to capture dark matter particles. The xenon mass alone in one of these experiments reaches up to 8 tons and costs millions of dollars. What happens if these new attempts also fail? Will we consider increasing the mass used? Is it conceivable that dark matter simply does not exist? Isn't it time to consider deep paradigmatic changes?
AI: It is true that certain areas of theoretical physics, cosmology, and astrophysics have experienced a period of stagnation in terms of major discoveries, especially in recent decades. However, it's important to recognize that scientific research can be a slow and painstaking process, and some major breakthroughs may take decades—or even centuries—to materialize.
Regarding individual contributions by scientists, there have been significant advances in areas such as observational cosmology, gravitational wave detection, exoplanet studies, and understanding large-scale properties of the Universe. Although these advances may not receive the same media attention as some past discoveries, they are of considerable importance in deepening our understanding of the cosmos.
Regarding dark matter, it is true that scientists have not yet obtained direct evidence of its existence, but there are strong indirect indications that support its presence. Ongoing experiments aimed at capturing dark matter particles remain crucial for confirming these indirect signals and achieving direct detection.
It is also true that paradigmatic shifts may be necessary to make progress in certain areas of theoretical physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. However, such shifts can only occur after thorough analysis and critical evaluation of existing theories and evidence. The scientific community is constantly striving to push the boundaries of our understanding of the Universe, but this requires time and substantial effort.
JPP: The term "indirect evidence" only makes sense if the hypothesis is confirmed in every new observation and if no alternative interpretation is possible. Take the case of dark matter, introduced to explain galaxy confinement. That worked until the discovery of the...