Rising Disasters Worldwide – Red Cross Report
Rising Disasters Worldwide: The 2004 Red Cross Report
February 14, 2005
Source: http://www.ifrc.org/fr/publicat/wdr2004/chapter8.asp
Chapter 8 – Disaster Trends and Statistics
Over the past decade, the number of "natural" disasters and technological accidents has increased significantly. Between 1994 and 1998, the average was 428 events per year; between 1999 and 2003, it rose by two-thirds to an average of 707 per year. The sharpest increase was recorded in countries with a low Human Development Index (a 142 percent increase), and transport accidents showed the most dramatic rise (a 75 percent increase). It should be noted that our statistics only include accidents resulting in at least ten deaths or around one hundred victims.
Hydrometeorological and geophysical disasters also rose sharply, increasing by 68 and 62 percent, respectively, over the decade. This trend reflects long-term patterns. However, climate-related disasters remain by far the most frequent, occurring at a ratio of nine to one compared to geophysical disasters. Among natural disasters, floods are most frequently reported in Africa, Asia, and Europe, while the Americas and Oceania are primarily affected by hurricanes.
The human toll reached 77,000 last year, three times higher than in 2002, with moderately and highly developed countries being the most severely affected. In Europe alone, disasters caused nearly 31,000 deaths in 2003, mostly due to the heatwave in August. This figure is eight times higher than the annual average of the previous nine years. The Bam earthquake alone claimed at least 26,000 lives. Conversely, in countries with a low Human Development Index, the human toll from disasters was the lowest in the past nine years. However, over the decade, more than half of those killed by natural disasters were residents of these same countries.
During the same period, droughts and famines were the deadliest phenomena, accounting for at least 275,000 victims, nearly half of the total. On average, each event caused more than 1,000 deaths, compared to 370 for earthquakes and just over 300 for extreme temperatures.
Despite the increase in the number of disasters, the annual average number of fatalities fell from 75,000 between 1994 and 1998 to 59,000 between 1999 and 2003. However, the number of people affected continued to rise. From an average of approximately 213 million during the first five years, it increased to 303 million during the following five years, representing a rise of more than 40 percent.
The relative decrease in deaths caused by hydrometeorological disasters, in particular, is partly explained by improvements in satellite forecasting and early warning systems, as well as strengthened community-level disaster preparedness. The increase in the number of people affected is due to various factors: the increased frequency of disasters, rapid population growth in the poorest regions, and accelerated, uncontrolled development, particularly in urban areas.
The impact of disasters varies greatly depending on the level of human development in the affected countries. Over the past decade, each disaster caused an average of 44 deaths in countries with a high Human Development Index, and 300 deaths in countries with a low Human Development Index.
Conversely, the economic impact shows an opposite trend, with an average of USD 318 million in damages per event in the most developed countries, compared to only USD 28 million—eleven times less—in the least developed countries. However, these figures do not account for the far more dramatic consequences of disasters on the gross domestic product of the poorest countries.
Regarding the evolution of assistance, official development assistance (ODA) from member countries of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reached USD 58.3 billion in 2002, an increase of 11.3 percent compared to the previous year. Canada, France, Greece, Ireland, and Italy increased their individual contributions by more than 30 percent. The largest absolute increases were recorded in the United States (USD 1.86 billion) and France (USD 1.28 billion).
Among the top five donors, the United States has significantly increased its contribution to foreign aid since 1997. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom's contribution has also risen steadily, reaching levels comparable to those of France and Germany, which have been declining since the mid-1990s. Japan provided the largest contribution to ODA until 2000, after which it was surpassed by the United States.
When measuring foreign aid as a percentage of gross national income, only five countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) have exceeded the 0.7 percent target set by the United Nations. However, compared to 2001, this percentage increased for Australia, Belgium, Canada, the United States, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, and Sweden.
As for emergency aid (excluding relief provided by multilateral institutions and NGOs), it rose from USD 3.3 billion in 2001 to USD 3.9 billion in 2002, an increase of 18 percent. As in previous years, the United States was the leading donor in this area, accounting for 36 percent of the total. It should be noted that DAC rules allow donors to include assistance provided to refugees within their own countries in their emergency aid contributions (25 percent of the total in 2001).
It is notoriously difficult to accurately measure the amounts dedicated to humanitarian aid, as donors calculate their contributions in different ways. Thus, the aforementioned total of USD 3.9 billion in emergency aid does not fully reflect reality, with some independent reports estimating the total amount of humanitarian aid at at least USD 10 billion per year. For the year 2001, this amount was broken down as follows:
• Humanitarian aid from DAC/OECD member countries (excluding assistance to refugees hosted in donor countries): USD 4.2 billion;
• Contributions from DAC/OECD member countries to post-conflict recovery programs: USD 4 billion;
• Humanitarian aid from non-DAC countries (particularly Saudi Arabia and South Korea): USD 500 million;
• Voluntary public contributions through NGOs: USD 700 million to USD 1.5 billion; and
• Multilateral humanitarian aid (via NGOs, the United Nations, and other international organizations) not included in DAC statistics: USD 400 million.
This chapter is primarily authored by Jonathan Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the World Disasters Report, Philippe Hoyois, Research Associate at CRED, Regina Below, EM-DAT Administrator, and Debarati Guha-Sapir, Director of CRED.
EM-DAT, a Disaster Database
Data on disasters and their human impact over the past decade come from the EM-DAT database and were compiled by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Founded in 1973, CRED is a non-profit institution located at the School of Public Health of the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium. While its primary focus is public health, the center also studies the socioeconomic impact and long-term effects of disasters.
Since 1988, it has managed EM-DAT, a disaster database that now contains essential information on more than 14,000 events that have occurred worldwide since 1900. The data come from a wide range of sources, including United Nations agencies, NGOs, insurance companies, research institutes, and news agencies. They are constantly updated to complete the information and avoid redundancies and inconsistencies.
New data are entered into EM-DAT at the end of the year, with priority given to data from United Nations agencies, OFDA, governments, and the International Federation. This sampling does not reflect any criterion of quality or value of the information, but simply reflects the fact that different sources do not cover all disasters or are subject to political constraints that may influence the figures.
This database primarily aims to facilitate humanitarian action at both national and international levels, streamline disaster preparedness strategies, and provide an objective reference framework for assessing vulnerabilities and setting priorities.
Chapter 8 – Disaster Trends and Statistics
Over the past decade, the number of "natural" disasters and technological accidents has increased significantly. Between 1994 and 1998, the average was 428 events per year; between 1999 and 2003, it rose by two-thirds to an average of 707 per year. The sharpest increase was recorded in countries with a low Human Development Index (a 142 percent increase), and transport accidents showed the most dramatic rise (a 75 percent increase). It should be noted that our statistics only include accidents resulting in at least ten deaths or around one hundred victims.
Hydrometeorological and geophysical disasters also rose sharply, increasing by 68 and 62 percent, respectively, over the decade. This trend reflects long-term patterns. However, climate-related disasters remain by far the most frequent, occurring at a ratio of nine to one compared to geophysical disasters. Among natural disasters, floods are most frequently reported in Africa, Asia, and Europe, while the Americas and Oceania are primarily affected by hurricanes.
The human toll reached 77,000 last year, three times higher than in 2002, with moderately and highly developed countries being the most severely affected. In Europe alone, disasters caused nearly 31,000 deaths in 2003, mostly due to the heatwave in August. This figure is eight times higher than the annual average of the previous nine years. The Bam earthquake alone claimed at least 26,000 lives. Conversely, in countries with a low Human Development Index, the human toll from disasters was the lowest in the past nine years. However, over the decade, more than half of those killed by natural disasters were residents of these same countries.
During the same period, droughts and famines were the deadliest phenomena, accounting for at least 275,000 victims, nearly half of the total. On average, each event caused more than 1,000 deaths, compared to 370 for earthquakes and just over 300 for extreme temperatures.
Despite the increase in the number of disasters, the annual average number of fatalities fell from 75,000 between 1994 and 1998 to 59,000 between 1999 and 2003. However, the number of people affected continued to rise. From an average of approximately 213 million during the first five years, it increased to 303 million during the following five years, representing a rise of more than 40 percent.
The relative decrease in deaths caused by hydrometeorological disasters, in particular, is partly explained by improvements in satellite forecasting and early warning systems, as well as strengthened community-level disaster preparedness. The increase in the number of people affected is due to various factors: the increased frequency of disasters, rapid population growth in the poorest regions, and accelerated, uncontrolled development, particularly in urban areas.
The impact of disasters varies greatly depending on the level of human development in the affected countries. Over the past decade, each disaster caused an average of 44 deaths in countries with a high Human Development Index, and 300 deaths in countries with a low Human Development Index.
Conversely, the economic impact shows an opposite trend, with an average of USD 318 million in damages per event in the most developed countries, compared to only USD 28 million—eleven times less—in the least developed countries. However, these figures do not account for the far more dramatic consequences of disasters on the gross domestic product of the poorest countries.
Regarding the evolution of assistance, official development assistance (ODA) from member countries of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reached USD 58.3 billion in 2002, an increase of 11.3 percent compared to the previous year. Canada, France, Greece, Ireland, and Italy increased their individual contributions by more than 30 percent. The largest absolute increases were recorded in the United States (USD 1.86 billion) and France (USD 1.28 billion).
Among the top five donors, the United States has significantly increased its contribution to foreign aid since 1997. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom's contribution has also risen steadily, reaching levels comparable to those of France and Germany, which have been declining since the mid-1990s. Japan provided the largest contribution to ODA until 2000, after which it was surpassed by the United States.
When measuring foreign aid as a percentage of gross national income, only five countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) have exceeded the 0.7 percent target set by the United Nations. However, compared to 2001, this percentage increased for Australia, Belgium, Canada, the United States, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, and Sweden.
As for emergency aid (excluding relief provided by multilateral institutions and NGOs), it rose from USD 3.3 billion in 2001 to USD 3.9 billion in 2002, an increase of 18 percent. As in previous years, the United States was the leading donor in this area, accounting for 36 percent of the total. It should be noted that DAC rules allow donors to include assistance provided to refugees within their own countries in their emergency aid contributions (25 percent of the total in 2001).
It is notoriously difficult to accurately measure the amounts dedicated to humanitarian aid, as donors calculate their contributions in different ways. Thus, the aforementioned total of USD 3.9 billion in emergency aid does not fully reflect reality, with some independent reports estimating the total amount of humanitarian aid at at least USD 10 billion per year. For the year 2001, this amount was broken down as follows:
• Humanitarian aid from DAC/OECD member countries (excluding assistance to refugees hosted in donor countries): USD 4.2 billion;
• Contributions from DAC/OECD member countries to post-conflict recovery programs: USD 4 billion;
• Humanitarian aid from non-DAC countries (particularly Saudi Arabia and South Korea): USD 500 million;
• Voluntary public contributions through NGOs: USD 700 million to USD 1.5 billion; and
• Multilateral humanitarian aid (via NGOs, the United Nations, and other international organizations) not included in DAC statistics: USD 400 million.
This chapter is primarily authored by Jonathan Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the World Disasters Report, Philippe Hoyois, Research Associate at CRED, Regina Below, EM-DAT Administrator, and Debarati Guha-Sapir, Director of CRED.
EM-DAT, a Disaster Database
Data on disasters and their human impact over the past decade come from the EM-DAT database and were compiled by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Founded in 1973, CRED is a non-profit institution located at the School of Public Health of the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium. While its primary focus is public health, the center also studies the socioeconomic impact and long-term effects of disasters.
Since 1988, it has managed EM-DAT, a disaster database that now contains essential information on more than 14,000 events that have occurred worldwide since 1900. The data come from a wide range of sources, including United Nations agencies, NGOs, insurance companies, research institutes, and news agencies. They are constantly updated to complete the information and avoid redundancies and inconsistencies.
New data are entered into EM-DAT at the end of the year, with priority given to data from United Nations agencies, OFDA, governments, and the International Federation. This sampling does not reflect any criterion of quality or value of the information, but simply reflects the fact that different sources do not cover all disasters or are subject to political constraints that may influence the figures.
This database primarily aims to facilitate humanitarian action at both national and international levels, streamline disaster preparedness strategies, and provide an objective reference framework for assessing vulnerabilities and setting priorities.
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